Dr. Niels Mulder, an anthropologist who conducted field research in Indonesia, especially Javanese Ethnic –its mysticism, cultural and everyday life wrote:
“April 1969, when I did my first research in Yogyakarta, people were under the spell of Nalo (national lottery). A full ticket consisted of six or seven digits and could be bought officially. But gambling on the last two digit of the outcome was far more popular.
The streets were lined with the small stands of Bandar (underground-lottery bankers) who sold the number 00 to 99. They paid seventy times the stake if the outcome of the tail of the national lottery coincided with the number bought”. (Mysticism in Java :p.41 by Dr. Niels Mulder)
Nowadays, national lottery is no longer exists, but the similar and illegal form called togel. Gamble in two digits, the winner will have money seventy times the stake too, and for four digits, there are 2500 times of the stake. That’s a lot of money.
But mathematically, to get the precise outcome number for that four digits, there are 10,000 probabilities, so that made the gambler’s chance to win 1: 9,999.
In fact, for most people (gamblers), would not consider such calculation. 2500 times paid to the stake is more interesting than that.
So, what would you think about that, optimistic, or stupid?